List of Recent Publications (selection)
2023
Nuclear Clouds Over the 38th Parallel
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, May 2023.
China-Strategy: Transatlantic and European Cacophony
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, April 2023.
Endloser Gipfelkampf
full text, in IPG Journal, März 2023.
Military Skirmishes in the Himalayas
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, March 2023.
Alles auf Sieg.
full text, in IPG Journal, März 2023.
Chicken-Game
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, March 2023.
Tschüss Schattendasein. Indiens weltpolitische Rolle
full text, in IPG Journal, Januar 2023.
At the Top Table. Will 2023 Be India's Year?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, January 2023.
republished:
full text, in Vision of Humanity, February 2023.
Hochgerüstet in die Sackgasse. Gibt es einen Ausweg aus der politischen, ökonomischen und militärischen Eskalation?
full text, in IPG Journal, Januar 2023.
English version: Security is more than defense with weapons.
full text, in IPS Journal, January 2023..
2022
Security Disorder: Is There a Way Out?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, December 2022.
Defense Industry Europe
full text, authors: Sebastian Schulze-Marmeling, Peter Wilke, Herbert Wulf, in: industrial (European Trade Union) and Syndex. Brussels 2022.
Strategic Dilemma: German in Search for an effective China Strategy.
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, November 2022.
Realitätscheck
full text, in IPG Journal, November 2022.
Should the Outcast be recognized?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, November 2022.
What's next in the Ukraine War?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, October 2022.
Ritt auf der Bombe (North Korea's Nuclear Bomb)
full text, in IPG Journal, September 2022.
Possible Deployment of North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: "Automatically and Immediately"
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, September 2022.
The Ukraine conflict between escalation and options for negotiations
full text, in Visions of Humanity, September 2022.(co-authored with Tobias Debiel).
Mit Russland reden (We need to talk to Russia)
full text, in Der Freitag, 1 September 2022.
Trend zur Eskalation (Tendency for Escalation)
full text, in IPG Journal, July 2022.
Caring about Nuclear Sharing: A Set-Back for Nuclear Arms Control
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute July 2022.
Nukleare Teilhabe: Wie Europa lernte, die Bombe zu lieben (Caring about nuclear sharing: How Europe learned to love the bomb),
full text, in Telepolis, July 11, 2022.
Den Gürtel weiter schnallen (Military Expenditures in Europe),
full text, in IPG Journal, June 2022.
Squaring the Circle
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute June 2022.
Dark Clouds Over North Korea
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute May 2022.
Dunkle Wolken über Nordkorea,
full text, in Telepolis, 28 May 2022.
Eskalation, Deeskalation und - vielleicht irgendwann - ein Ende des Krieges?
full text, in: Zeitschrift für sozialistische Politik, Ausgabe 2, 249, S. 42-48, 2022.
About Football-, Pandemic-, Kremlin- and Military Experts
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, May 2022.
Von Fußball-, Pandemie-, Kreml- und Militärexperten
full text, in Telepolis, 15 May 2022.
Escalation, De-escalation and Perhaps-Eventually-an End to the War?
full text, in Policy Brief 128, Toda Peace Institute, April 2022.
Double Standards
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, April 2022.
republished in IDN InDepthNewes
full text
Ausgerüstet. Steht das indisch-russische Verhältnis vor einer Zäsur? (armed. the indo-russian relations)
full text, in IPG Journal, March 2022.
Panikpolitik (politics in panic)
full text, in IPG Journal, March 2022.
Escalation and De-escalation in the Ukraine War
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, March 2022.
republished in Pearls and Irritations:
full text
Eskalation und Deeskalation im Ukraine-Krieg (Escalation and De-escalation in the Ukraine War)
full text, in Development and Peace Blog, Institute for Development and Peace, University of Essen/Duisburg, March 2022.
Putin's War in Ukraine: How to get out of the Catch-22 Situation?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute March 2022.
Ukraine-Konflikt: Entspannungspolitik oder Gegenmaßnahmen? Eskalieren hilft nicht (Ukraine conflict: Détente oder counter-measures? Escalation is not helpful)
full text, in Frankfurter Rundschau 11 February 2022.
Fest im Sattel,
full text, in IPG Journal, Januar 2022.
Kim Dynasty: Firmly in Control
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute January 2022.
Von wegen größte Demokratie der Welt
full text, in IPG Jan. 2022.
Putin und Biden: Wer blinzelt zuerst?
full text, in Telepolis, Janary 4, 2022.
Putin and Biden: Who will blink first?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute, January 2022.
2021
Setting new priorities: The EU shifts from civil peace and development projects to military policies. in: Ramesh Thakur (ed.) (2021), The Nuclear Ban Treaty, Rutledge, 157 - 159,
publisher.
An Important TPNW Signal from Germany - But Nothing More
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute December 2021.
Zweischneidiges Schwert: Kalter Krieg mit China?
full text, in IPG Nov. 2021.
Are we heading for a Cold War with China?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute November 2021.
Im Abseits
full text, in IPG Oct 2021.
The EU Sidelined?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute October 2021.
You cannot lead a war and build the nation at the same time,
full text, Interview in Centre für Global Cooperation Research, September 2021.
Man kann nicht gleichzeitig Krieg führen und eine Nation aufzubauen versuchen,
full text, Interview in Centre für Global Cooperation Research, September 2021.
Was geschieht in Nordkorea? (What is happening in North Korea),
full text, in Telepolis, September 2021.
Von Afghanistanpolitik zu sprechen ist ein Euphemismus (To speak of an Afghanistan policy is a euphemism),
full text, in Telepolis, August 2021.
Afghanistan: Can We Learn from the Mistakes and Chaos?
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute August 2021.
Rallying for a China Strategy
full text, in Policy Brief 112, Toda Peace Institute July 2021.
Pipe Dreams: Nord Stream 2,
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute July 2021.
Balancing Act in Asia
full text, in Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute May 2021.
Das kleinere Übel?
full text, in IPG May 2021.
The Renaissance of Geopolitics (in Europe)
full text, in Toda Institute, Global Outlook, May 2021.
Biden sollte mit Kim telefonieren (Biden should call Kim), Interview in Radio NDR about the US North Korea policy
interview, in Radio NDR April 2021.
On the Way to a new Arms Race and a New Cold War?
full text in Toda Institute, Global Outlook, March. 2021.
Republished in IPS Journal: Not even the pandemic could stop a new arms race
full text in 13 April 2021.
German version: Globaler Rüstungsboom
full text, in IPG, April 2021.
The Rule of Law: Undermined and Under Attack. Questioning the State Monopoly on the Legitimate Use of Physical Force
full text Toda Policy Brief 105, March. 2021.
Setting New Priorities: The EU Shifts from Civil and Development Projects to Military Policies
full text, in Toda Institute, Global Outlook, March 2021.
"Beyond Westlessness": A "Restless" Post-Trump Order?
full text, in Toda Institute, Global Outlook, February 2021.
Vergesst Trump! Münchener Sicherheitskonferenz.
full text, in IPG February 2021.
Warten auf Joe. Kommt die nächste Koreakrise? (Waiting for Joe. The next Korea crisis?)
full text, in IPG January 2021.
The Rule of Law under Attack
full text, in Toda Peace Institute. Global Outlook, January 2021.
Eigene Patronen statt Schutzpatron. Der Sturm auf das Kapitol (Attacking law and order. Storming the Capitol)
full text, in IPG January 2021.
2020
The European Union's Security and Defence Policy: Struggling to Find its Role in the Big Power Game
full text Toda Policy Brief 88, Sept. 2020.
Outsourcing der Gewalt (Outsourcing violence)
full text, in IPG August 2020.
In die Quere. Asiens Supermächte China und Indien streben nach Höherem (Across with each other. Asia's superpowers strive for the High-table)
full text, in IPG June 2020.
Am Abgrund. Soziale Konflikte, wachsende Rivalität mit China und nun auch noch Corona (At the brink. Social conflicts, increasing rivalry with China and now Corona)
full text, in IPG June 2020.
Fait accompli. Ist die Denuklearisierung Koreas noch möglich? (Is denuclearization in Korea still possible?), Wissenschaft und Frieden, 2/2020, 40-42,
abstract.
Aus der Zeit gefallen. Kampfflugzeuge der USA kaufen?
full text, Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, May 2020.
Mythos. "Die Bundeswehr ist zu schlecht ausgerüstet, weil sie zu wenig Geld bekommt." Kommentar
full text, in Friedenswarte, Vol. 92, Issue 3-4., S. 162-166.
Exhausts to respirators? Experiences in the conversion of production sites help to avoid misleading simplifications.
full text
Auspuffe zu Atemgeräten? Erfahrungen mit Konversion von Produktionsstätten helfen, irreführende Vereinfachungen vermeiden.
full text
Corona-Krise und Zukunft - Keine Zeit für Kriegsherren,
full text, Telepolis, 3 April 2020.
Corona Crisis and Future Priorities €- No Time for Strong-men Actions,
full text, Cooperative Security Initiative, 6 April 2020
The G20's Responsibility for Arms Control.
full text Vision of Humanity, Feb. 2020.
2019
Die Umkehr der Lemminge (Disarming the G20).
full text Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, Dec. 2019.
Das goldene Kalb der AKK. (The golden calf of Annegret Kram-Kartenbauer).
full text Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, July 2019.
The Dragon and the Elephant: India's Perspectives on Sino-Indian Relations
full text Toda Policy Brief 43, July 2019.
Das Geschäft mit der Rüstung. Warum Europa aufhören sollte, Waffen in den Mittleren und Nahen Osten zu liefern (Arms Business. Why Europe shop stop supplying arms to the Near and Middle East).
full text German,
full text English Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, May 2019.
Gemischte Signale vom Ganges. (Modi's mixed bag).
full text German,
full text English Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, April 2019.
Prospects for Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula: Lessons from the Past for a Nuclear-Free Future, Today Peace Institute,
full text, Policy Brief No. 31, February 2019.
2018
Analysis of SIPRI's arms production data: Some suggestions for expansion, in: The Economics of Peace and Security Journal,
full text, Vol. 13, No.2/2018, p. 26-29.
The delusion of Security Sector Reform "light" and the need for adequate priorities
full text, in FriEnt Peacebuilding Forum, August 2018.
The 2% fetish: NATO's military expenditure debate
full text, in Vision on Humanity, August 2018.
Nordkoreas Atomprogramm. Durchbruch oder alles nur Show? (North Korea's Nuclear Program: Break-through or only show?).
full text
Der 2%-Fetisch. Verteidigungsausgaben sollten sich an einer durchdachten Strategie und nicht an einer willkürlichen Chiffre ausrichten. (The 2%-Fetish. Defence expenditures should be based on a sound strategy and not on an arbitrary figure).
full text
Das permanente Jein. Mehr deutsche Verantwortung in der Welt sollte eine konsequente Politik der militärischen Nichteinmischung bedeuten. (The permanent yes and no. More global German responsibilities means consistent absence of military intervention).
full text
Beredtes Schweigen. Warum die Einbeziehung von Rüstungsanstrengungen bei den SDGs wichtig wäre.(Articulate Silence. Including arms racing in the SDGs would be important).
full text in Tobias Deibel (ed) Entwicklungspolitik in Zeiten der SDGs. INEF, Duisburg, 81-85.
Politikberatung und Dialog.Thesen zur friedensethischen Verantwortlichkeit der Kirchen. (Policy advice and dialogue. Thesis about peace ethical responsibilities of the churches), in: Ines-Jacqueline Werkner and Christina Schüsse (eds.) Gerechter Frieden als Orientierungswissen, Springer VS 2018, 89-105.
Nordkorea wird mit Sicherheit weiterhin am Atomprogramm festhalten (Interview: North Korea will certainly hold on to its nuclear program, in: Telepolis (Heise Online) 04 March 2018.
full text
Dabei sein ist nichts. Niemand sollte ernsthaft glauben, die Olympischen Spiele könnten den Koreakonflikt beilegen (Taking part is nothing. Nobody should seriously believe the Korea conflict could be mended by the Olympic Games).
full text
2017
Monopoly on the Use of Force: The Rules of the Game are Changing
full text, in Vision on Humanity, November 2017.
Sicherheit weiter denken. Plädoyer für ein neues europäisches friedens- und sicherheitspolitisches Leitmotiv (Future Security. Opting for a new European peace and security Leitmotiv). co-authored with Bodo Schulze.
full text in Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Internationale Politikanalyse, November.
Schluss mit dem Machogehabe. Die USA müssen China beim Nordkoreakonflikt mit ins Boot holen. Gegenüber Kim Jong Un zurückzupöbeln bringt nichts (Stop the macho behavior between North Korea and the USA).
full text
Die EU - Friedensmacht oder globaler Interventionist? (The EU as a Power of Peace or global interventionist) in Das Blättchen, vol. 20, no. 15. 17 July,
full text
Report of the FES Reflection Group of the Monopoly on the Use of Force 2.0?, Providing Security in Times of Uncertainty. Opting for a Mosaic Security System
full text
Berlin, June.
More than a Rule Taker: the Indian Way of Multilateralism (co-author: Tobias Debiel), in: Mischa Hansel, Raphaelle Khan and Mélissa Levaillant (eds) (2017), Theorizing Indian Foreign Policy, Routledge, 91-111.
publisher.
Maulheld Modi. Die Bilanz der hindu-nationalistischen Regierung nach drei Amtsjahren fällt mager aus. (Bigmouth Modi. The meagre balance sheet of three year's of the hindu-nationalist government)
full text, in Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft.
North Korea - On The Brink?
full text, in Vision on Humanity, May 2017.
2016
Bi Bim BUMM, Fünf Schritte, wie Nordkoreas Atomprogramm gestoppt werden kann.(Bi Bim Dumm. Fife steps to stop North Korea's nuclear program)
full text, in Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft.
Konversion: warum funktioniert sie nicht? (Conversion: Why does it not work?, in Das Blättchen, vol. 19, no. 22. 24 October,
full text
Peacebuilding in Crisis - Rethinking paradigms and practices of transnational cooperation (eds. Tobias Debiel, Thomas Held and Ulrich Schnecken)in Wissenschaft und Frieden
publisher, 3/2016, p. 55 - 6.
Indiens Weltmachtansprüche (India's global ambitions), in Das Blättchen, vol. 19, no. 13. 20 June,
full text
Den Rüstungswettlauf durchbrechen! Um die Aufrüstungsspirale zu stoppen, muss die G20 handeln.(Stopping the Arms Race! The G20 needs to act.)
full text, in Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft.
China, Panama und die UN-Sanktionen gegen Nordkorea (China, Panama and the UN-Sanctions against North Korea), in Das Blättchen, vol 19, no. 10, 9 May,
full text
Von Krise zu Krise: Die Atomrüstung Nordkoreas (From crisis to crisis: North Korea's Nuclear Weapons), in Das Blättchen, vol. 19, no. 7. 28 March,
full text
Noch nie wurden derart scharfe Sanktionen beschlossen (UN-sanctions against North Korea), in Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft
full text.
Medien im Krieg - Krieg in den Medien (by Jörg Becker), (Media in War - War in Media)(book review), in Wissenschaft und Frieden
publisher, 1/2016, p. 62-3.
52. Allgemeine Verunsicherung (52. Munich Security Conference 2016)
full text, co-authored with Bodo Schulze and Marius Müller-Hennig, in Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft.
2015
Perspektiven der wehrtechnischen Industrie in Deutschland (Perspectives of the defense Industrie in Germany) co-authored with Jörg Weingarten and Peter Wilke, in: Hans Bäckler Stiftung, Study 309
full text
Is there a need for new peace and security rules in the twenty-first century? co-authored with Mely Caballero-Anthony and Marius Müller-Hennig, in Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation, Reflection Group Think Piece 01
full text
Tendencies to Rearrange,Dismantle, Damage, and Destroy the Monopoly on the Use of Force - Causes, Consequences, and Types, in Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation, Reflection Group Think Piece 03
full text
BRICS: A realistic alternative for global reforms? in: Global Governance Spotlight 6/2015,
full text
BRICS: Realistische Alternative für globale Reformen? in: Global Governance Spotlight 6/2015,
full text
Washingtons Söldner (by Klaas Voss) (Washington's Mercenaries (Book Review) in Wissenschaft und Frieden
publisher, 1/2015, p. 56 - 7.
Nordkorea. Innenansichten eines totalen Staates (by Rüdiger Frank) (North Korea. Inside a totalitarian state) (book review) in Sicherheit und Frieden
publisher, 2/2015, p. 114-5.
BRICS: realistic alternative with a stuttering motor, in SIPRI and Economists for Peace and Security blog.
full text
India's 'Strategic Autonomy' and the Club Model of Global Governance: Why the Indian BRICS Engagement Warrants a Less Ambiguous Foreign Policy Doctrine, in: Strategic Analysis, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 27-43. (co-author Tobias Debiel).
full text.
2014
Staatsbildung in Afghanistan: gut gemeint, falsch geplant, schlecht gemacht (state-building in Afghanistan: well intended, poorly planned, wrongly implemented), in: B. Rinke, Ch. Lammers, R. Meyers and G. Simonis (eds), Interventionen Revisited, Springer Wiesbaden, 191-204.
Is India fit for a Role in Global Governance. The Predicament of Fragile Domestic Structures and Institutions. in: Global Cooperation Research Papers, No. 4, Centre for Global Cooperation Research
full text.
India, China and the three C's in: United States Institute of Peace. International Network for Economics and Conflict
full text.reprinted in Global Dialogue 4, Centre for Global Cooperation Research, University of Duisburg, pp. 51-54.
full text
Indiens globale Anliegen und Ansprüche (India's global desires and ambitions), in: Zeitschrift für Aussen- und Sicherheitspolitik,Vol. 7, No. 1/2014, 49-65.
full text.
2013
Konflikt, Kooperation und Konkurrenz. Indiens China-Perspektiven (Conflict, Cooperation and Competition. India's China Perspectives), in: Wissenschaft und Frieden, vol. 31, 4/2013, 18-20
abstract
Indiens BRICS-Politik: Unentschlossen im Club (co-author Tobias Debiel) (India's BRICS Policy: Undecided in the Club) in: Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 50-51/2013, 30-35
full text.
Indien, China und die drei K (India, China and the there C) in: Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 37/2013, 9-10
full text.
Der Waffenhandelsvertrag. Ist das Glas halb voll oder halb leer?, in: Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden, Global Governance Spotlight 3/2013,
full text.
The Arms Trade Treaty. Is the glass half full or half empty?, in: Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden, Global Governance Spotlight 3/2013,
full text.
India's Aspirations in Global Politics. Competing Ideas and Amorphous Practices, in: Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg, INEF Report 107,
full text.
Zivile Konfliktbearbeitung. Vom Anspruch zur Wirklichkeit (by Andreas Heinemann-Grüder and Isabella Bauer, eds) (Civilian conflict management. Theory and practice) (book review) in Sicherheit und Frieden
publisher, 1/2013, p. 48-9.
2012
Waffenhandel außer Kontrolle? (Arms Trade out of Control?), in: Wissenschaft und Frieden,
full text, Dossier 71, 4/2012, p. 2-3.
Föderalismus als Konfliktregelung. Indien, Russland, Spanien und Nigeria im Vergleich (by Andreas Heinemann-Grüder) (Federalism as conflict regulation. India, Russia, Spain and Nigeria in comparison) (book review) in Sicherheit und Frieden
publisher, 3/20212, p. 175-6.
Does the Elephant Dance? Contemporary Indian Foreign Policy (by David M. Malone) (Book Review) in Wissenschaft und Frieden
publisher, 3/2012, p. 64.
Libyen: Land voller Waffen (Libya: full of weapons), in: Johannes M. Becker und Gert Sommer (eds.), Der Libyen-Krieg (The War in Libya). Lit Verlag, Berlin 2012, pp. 237-255.
Publisher
Violence and Security Concerns in Post-Conflict Situations (Sabine Kurtenbach / Herbert Wulf), in: Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg (Project Working Paper 3),
full text.
Comment to Violence and Security Concerns in Post-Conflict Situations
full text.
2011
The Privatization of Violence: A Challenge to State-Building and the Monopoly on Force, in: Brown Journal of World Affairs, Fall/Winter 2011, vol. XVIII, issue 1,
full text, pp. 137 - 149.
North Koera's Military-Diplomatic Campaigns, 1966-2008 (by Naruhsige Michishita) (Book Review) in Sicherheit und Frieden
publisher, 4/20211, pp. 285-286.
Rebuilding the Security Sector in Post-Conflict Societies, by Judy Smith-Hö†hn (Book Review)
publisher, 3/2011, pp. 60-61.
Robert Neunmann, Sir Basil Zaharoff. Der König der Waffen (The King of Weapons) (eds. Jäger-Gogol, Becker) (Book Review)
in Sicherheit und Frieden
publisher, 3/2011, pp. 220-221.
Will the European Defence Market Strengthen or Weaken the EU's Foreign and Security Policy? in: Alyson J.K. Bailes and Sara Depau (eds.), The EU Defence Market, Flemish Peace Institute,
full text, pp. 23 - 30.
Security Sector Reform in Developing and Transitional Countries Revisited, in: Beatrix Austin, Martina Fischer and Hans J. Giessmann (eds.), Advancing Conflict Transformation. The Berghof Handbook II, Barbara Budrich Publishers, Opladen
full text, pp. 337-357.
Konversion 2.0 (Conversion 2.0), in: Wissenschaft und Frieden, vol. 29, no. 2, 2011,
full text, pp. 31-34.
Friedensdividende (Peace Dividend), in: Hans J. Gieï߂mann, Bernhard Rinke (eds), Handbuch Frieden, VS Verlag, Wiesbaden 2011, pp. 138-148.
Publisher
Frieden und Politikberatung (Peace and Policy Advice), in: Hans J. Gie߂mann, Bernhard Rinke (eds), Handbuch Frieden, VS Verlag Wiesbaden 2011, pp. 495-502.
Publisher
2010
Gut gemeint ist längst nicht gut. Über die Umsetzung des Aktionsplans Zivile Krisenprävention (Well Meaning is not Good Implementation: On the Implementation of the Action Plan Civil Crises Prevention), in: Wissenschaft und Frieden, vol. 28, no. 4, 2010,
full text, pp. 44-47.
Systemic Disconnects: Why Regional Organizations Fail to Use Early Warning and Response Mechanisms, in: Global Governance, vol. 16, no. 4, 2010,pp. 525-547
full text, (co-author: Tobias Debiel).
Afghanistan: Ein Krieg in der Sackgasse (Afghanistan: A Misguided War). Lit Verlag, Berlin 2010. (edited with Johannes M. Becker)
Publisher
Staatsbildung in Afghanistan. Eine fehlgeschlagene Strategie (State Building in Afghanistan. A Misguided Strategy), in: Afghanistan: Ein Krieg in der Sackgasse (Afghanistan: A Misguided War). Lit Verlag, Berlin 2010, pp. 161-180. (edited with Johannes M. Becker)
Publisher
Military Security between Rearmament, Democratisation and Privatisation, in: Debiel, Tobias, Dirk Messner, Franz Nuscheler, Michele Roth and Conrnelia Ulbert, (eds.): Global Trends 2010. Peace, Development, Environment.
full text, pp. 19 - 40.